News » Climate change impacts on agricultural phosphorus losses

A studyfrom 11 UK universities models expected impact of climate change onagricultural phosphorus losses, based on high-frequency phosphorus flowdata from three UK sub-catchments, a climate model and uncertaintyestimates and two phosphorus transfer models (HYPE HydrologicalPredictions for the Environment and DBM Data-Based Mechanistic). Thethree sub-catchments (Newby Beck, Cumbria ? Blackwater, Norfolk ? Wylye,Hampshire) have different agricultural contexts (livestock, arable).Results predict increased winter rainfall (+15 to +30%) and decreasedsummer rainfall. Because most phosphorus losses occur in winter, whensoils are water saturated, this results in expected increases of +10 to+30% in annual phosphorus losses, despite a reduction in summer losses(-20%). These increases in phosphorus losses are greater than reductionsestimated as possible by farm mitigation measures within currentagricultural practice, and could only be countered by considerableagricultural changes (e.g. -20 to -80% reduction in phosphorus inputs).

?Major agricultural changes required tomitigate phosphorus losses under climate change?, M.C. Ockenden et al.,Nature Communication, 8:161, 2017, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00232-0